Brazil's Collision Course with the U.S.
In “Brazil’s Collision Course With the U.S.?”, R. Evan Ellis examines the strategic shift in Brazil’s foreign policy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and its implications for U.S.–Brazil relations. Since World War II, the two nations have maintained a complex friendship built on cooperation and autonomy. Yet under Lula’s current administration, that relationship faces unprecedented strain.
Lula’s government is pursuing a left-leaning, internationalist agenda that strengthens ties with extra-hemispheric powers such as China, Russia, and Iran. This alignment has translated into massive Chinese investments in Brazil’s strategic sectors—energy, telecommunications, ports, and mining—alongside active cooperation in defense, artificial intelligence, and satellite technology. At the same time, Brazil has become a central player in the BRICS bloc and a promoter of a multipolar order that challenges U.S. dominance.
Ellis warns that this trajectory could turn Brazil into the main hub of opposition to Washington in Latin America, with consequences extending beyond economics to reshape the region’s political balance. Although an open conflict between the two countries is not inevitable, the author suggests that strategists on both sides should prepare for that possibility.
