Prospects for China’s Advance in Latin America During the Second Trump Administration
Abstract: This work examines the impact of the policies of the second Trump administration in the United States on the advance of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America. It argues that the administration’s pushback against China could deter some engagement with the PRC. Nonetheless, those policies and actions also will have indirect consequences that facilitate China’s advance in the region, including (1) expanded exports to the PRC by some Latin American countries due to US tariffs, (2) decreased attractiveness of the United States as a partner, (3) ceding space to China in multilateral institutions, (4) disrupted cooperation on Latin America with US democratic allies outside the region, (5), increased incentives for security cooperation with the PRC, (6) extended life of anti-US regimes doing business with US extra-hemispheric rivals, and (7) risk of more anti-US regimes opening doors to the PRC.
Keywords: China, Latin America, Caribbean, soft power, extra-hemispheric actors.
Introduction:
The pushback against the global advance of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been an important element of the “America First” strategy of the second administration of US President Donald Trump.
During the first Trump administration (2017-2021) and the administration of Joseph Biden (2021-2025) that followed it, US resistance to China’s advance sought to leverage the appeal of the United States as a reliable, democratic partner, by contrast to the authoritarianism and aggression of the PRC. Both administrations leveraged the contrast between the United States for individual rights and freedom of expression versus the PRC crackdown against democracy in Hong Kong, its internment of Uighur Moslems in Xinjiang, and its use of economic influence to suppress discourse about its undemocratic practices elsewhere in the world, among others.
In a similar fashion, the US approach during both the first Trump administration and the Biden administration focused on the United States as a defender against aggression versus a China that threatened to use military force against Taiwan, transformed reefs and shoals in disputed waters into PRC military outposts, and then used the China Coast Guard and Maritime Militia to impose its territorial claims against those disputing those areas. During the first Trump administration and the following Biden administration, the United States sought to limit the more predatory aspects of China’s advance by advocating for openness and the rule of law in contracting business dealings in the region, in contrast to China’s frequent use of nontransparent state-to-state negotiations and the inclusion of personal benefits in its commercial dealings...
