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U.S. Army War College (USAWC)

China’s Strategic Pursuits and Military Options in Latin America

R. Evan Ellis

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The primary focus of a major war with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would likely be the Indo-Pacific. Historically, Beijing has focused on pursuing and protecting strategic interests close to home, including Taiwan and PRC maritime claims over the South and East China Seas.  Notably, the People’s Republic of China has shown an increasing willingness to use limited force outside its home region through People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy counterpiracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, PLA Navy support for the evacuation of Chinese personnel  from Libya and Yemen, and the establishment of a naval base in Djibouti.2 

Additionally, the People’s Republic of China provided some support to wars of national liberation in Africa during the 1970s and 1980s.  Nevertheless, PRC behavior, public statements, and military doctrine have de-emphasized the use of conventional forces in waging war far from home. 

Additionally, the People’s Republic of China has historically been particularly cautious with respect to military activity close to its principal geopolitical rival, the United States. Thus, the proximity of Latin America to the United States—particularly Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and the northern part of the Andes Mountains—suggests PRC activities in the region, short of a major war, will continue to be cautious and limited, centered on protecting Chinese nationals ...

R. Evan Ellis

R. Evan Ellis

Dr. Evan Ellis is Senior Non-Resident Associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Senior Non-Resident Fellow with Florida International University, with a focus on the region’s relationships with China and other non-Western Hemisphere actors as well as transnational organized crime and populism in the region. Dr. Ellis previously served as on the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning staff (S/P) with responsibility for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as international narcotics and law enforcement issues. In his academic capacity, Dr. Ellis presented his work in a broad range of business and government forums in 27 countries on four continents. He has given testimony on Latin American security issues to the U.S. Congress on various occasions, has discussed his work regarding China and other external actors in Latin America on a broad range of radio and television programs, and is cited regularly in the print media in both the United States and Latin America for his work in this area. Dr. Ellis has also been awarded the Order of Military Merit José María Córdova by the Colombian government for his scholarship on security issues in the region.

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